Wine’s Next Chapter in Hospitality

Beyond the Panic Headlines

Once again, headlines are sounding the alarm: wine is supposedly losing ground, eclipsed by spirits, seltzers, and non-alcoholic alternatives. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z, are portrayed as uninterested in the grape, leaving producers and restaurants to wonder if the category has finally run its course. Yet history tells a different story. Wine has endured far greater threats, from Prohibition to decades of industrialized jug wine, only to reinvent itself time and again. What we are witnessing today is not a collapse but another cycle of adaptation. For chefs and hospitality professionals, this shift is an opening rather than an ending.

The Long History of Reinvention

Wine’s survival has always depended on its ability to evolve with culture. In ancient Rome, it was consumed by all social classes, often blended with seawater or herbs. The Middle Ages saw monks preserve viticulture across Europe, ensuring its continuity. By the eighteenth century, estates in Bordeaux and Burgundy elevated wine to a symbol of refinement, while the industrial age democratized access with mass production. In the United States, Prohibition nearly erased wine culture altogether, leaving behind only sweet, cheap products that lingered for decades. Recovery came slowly, but by the 1980s, wine coolers and California Chardonnays reintroduced wine to a broader audience, paving the way for the premium market. More recently, millennials reshaped the category with their embrace of rosé, natural wines, and sustainability. Each era brought disruption, but each left wine stronger and more diversified.

The Numbers Behind Today’s Shift

Globally, wine consumption has declined to its lowest level in sixty years, falling 3.3 percent to 21.4 billion litres last year. In the UK alone, still wine sales have dropped by 19 percent since 2019. Wine’s share of global alcoholic beverage servings has slipped from 11 percent in 2019 to 10 percent today, and is projected to fall to 9 percent by 2029. At the same time, ready-to-drink beverages have doubled their share from 1 percent to 2 percent, reflecting a wider shift toward convenience and casual consumption.

The parallel with the 1980s wine cooler craze is striking. Then, lightly fizzy bottles introduced a generation to wine in a fun, approachable format. Today, canned wines and wine-based RTDs are poised to serve a similar function. Spirits have been quicker to dominate the ready-to-drink space, particularly in the U.S., where RTDs grew at an annual rate of 14 percent between 2019 and 2024, while still wine volumes declined by 4 percent. In Germany, RTDs grew 11 percent annually in the same period, with nearly a quarter of Gen Z drinkers preferring them compared to only 9 percent choosing wine. In markets like Japan, Canada, and the U.S., RTDs now outsell combined still and sparkling wine.

The NOLO Boom

Complicating matters further is the rise of the no- and low-alcohol (NOLO) category. Worth nearly US$10 billion globally, this segment is projected to grow at a rate of 7 percent per year through 2026, with growth in the UK forecast closer to 30 percent. Producers are responding. Treasury Wine Estates, owner of Penfolds, recently invested 15 million US dollars in a Barossa Valley facility dedicated to dealcoholised wines, betting that the category will expand by 4 billion dollars by 2028. In France, 29 percent of consumers now drink lower-alcohol or dealcoholised wines, and that figure rises to 44 percent among 18- to 25-year-olds. The UK market tells a similar story: no-alcohol wine grew by 8 percent in 2024 even as low-alcohol wine fell by 5 percent, and the overall no/low category more than doubled in size year-over-year.

This trend is driven by moderation. Sixty-seven percent of Gen Z drinkers report actively moderating their alcohol consumption. In the UK, more than three-quarters of young people say they are cutting back, with one in four practicing “zebra striping,” alternating alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks during social occasions. Health is the most frequently cited reason. In Britain, nearly a third of young adults report drinking less than they did a year ago, while 13 percent claim total abstinence. Dry January participation continues to rise, with one in five drinkers opting in this year, and 85 percent of pubs now offering alcohol-free beer as standard.

What This Means for the Table

For chefs and hospitality leaders, the implications are clear. Wine is not disappearing, but its role in dining culture is shifting. Guests are looking for moderation, balance, and experiences that align with their values. This means menus that feature thoughtful no- and low-alcohol wines alongside traditional pairings, smaller pours, and more storytelling around provenance and sustainability.

At a raw bar, a canned pét-nat can be served alongside oysters, presented with the same casual ease as a cold beer but with the sophistication of sparkling wine. A tasting menu might open with a de-alcoholised sparkling rosé paired with a light amuse-bouche, allowing guests to enjoy the ritual of a toast without overindulgence. A casual dining concept could feature a premium bag-in-box natural red, poured by the glass with wood-fired pizza, removing the intimidation factor while highlighting quality. Even dessert courses can embrace the trend: a no-alcohol Moscato-style pour matched with panna cotta or seasonal fruit tart lets guests finish a meal with sweetness and ceremony, minus the buzz.

The way wine is presented is as important as what’s in the glass. Younger diners often respond more to a story about the vineyard’s sustainable practices, or the playful design of a can, than to lectures on soil types and tannin structure. For chefs, aligning wine with flavor experiences, cultural context, and shared values is more effective than relying on tradition alone.

Decanting Toward a New Market

Wine has always found a way forward, not by clinging to tradition but by reshaping it for each generation. Gen Z may not aspire to a Bordeaux cellar, but they are open to a chilled canned pét-nat at a summer event or a thoughtfully crafted dealcoholised sparkling alongside a tasting menu. For the culinary world, this is a chance to position wine as a versatile partner at the table, part of an experience that balances heritage with innovation.

Wine is not in decline. It is in transition, decanting into a new era. For chefs, the opportunity is not simply to serve it, but to guide how it is understood, enjoyed, and integrated into the future of dining.